Evidence Base

The research foundation and validation record for the Sequence framework.

Whether work starts is predictable. The signal that determines it can be measured, and becomes more reliable over time.

Measurement Framework

Three integrated components.

HEG

Hedonic Expectancy Gap
The measurable difference between how difficult starting is expected to feel and how it actually feels.

DD

Decision Domains
A structured snapshot that surfaces structural, capacity, and predictive constraints—the primary drivers of initiation failure.

IRI

Initiation Reliability Index
A real-time estimate of how likely a task is to start under current conditions.

Foundational Research

The Hedonic Expectancy Gap: A Framework for Understanding Intention Failure
Burge, J. — Frontiers in Psychology, 2026

The framework draws from established research in:

Affective forecasting — people systematically mispredict how future experiences will feel, often overestimating difficulty or discomfort
Expectation persistence — prediction errors do not reliably self-correct over time
Expectancy-value theory and behavioral experiment methodology

Selected references:

Affective Forecasting: Knowing What to Want — Wilson & Gilbert (2005)
Why Don’t We Learn to Accurately Forecast Feelings? — Meyvis, Ratner & Levav (2010)

Foundational Essays

These essays outline the broader conditions under which prediction accuracy degrades—and how it can be restored.

The Frictionless Trap Goes Deeper than You Think: Why We Don’t Start the Things that Matter
Why optimizing for ease can make starting harder—and what that means for how work is structured

Identity Architecture – The Cognitive Filter that Restores Predictive Integrity
How internal models influence prediction accuracy and execution consistency

Early Results

Initiation is measurable before action begins, correctable through calibration, and stabilizable across repeated attempts. The pattern has held consistently across founder-led cycles.

Reduction in misjudgment of effort across repeated attempts

Increased task initiation under comparable conditions

Clear identification of structural, capacity, and predictive constraints

Ongoing Validation

This page is updated as new evidence is collected. It serves as a living record of what the framework has demonstrated and what remains under investigation.

Pilot Cohort data collection — in progress
Enterprise pilot results — pending
Longitudinal calibration patterns — emerging

Stay current with the research

Receive new research and essays as they publish.